13
九月

新加坡國會大選

作者 : 客座隨筆   在 邁向現代 Road to Modernity

2015年新加坡大選在本年(2015年) 9月11日舉行。這是新加坡建國總理李光耀 (Lee Kuan Yew) 逝世後該國舉行的第一次大選,選出新一屆新加坡國會全部89個民選議席。

之前雅帆特邀僑居新加坡十多年的好友「祖」兄,講述他對李光耀逝世的感言,詳見網誌352〈新加坡國父–李光耀〉。今次再度特邀他講述2015年新加坡大選的看法,全文載錄如下:

“The 2015 general election was the first since Singapore’s independence with all the 89 parliamentary seats being contested. The election took place after the death of Lee Kuan Yew in March this year and the celebration of Singapore’s 50th anniversary in August. Under the Singapore election system, it is mandatory for all adult citizens to cast their votes in a general election. There are 8 opposition parties in this election besides the People’s Action Party (人民行動黨;PAP) which is under the leadership of Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍;Lee Kuan Yew’s son), the existing prime minister.

In 2011 general election, the opposition parties only contested in 43 seats but they have contested all seats this round. The major opposition party is Workers’ Party of Singapore (工人黨;WP) which had won 7 seats in the last general election. Some opposition parties are just newly formed recently and they put forward new candidates who are never heard of by the voters.

After the general election this month, PAP won 83 out of the 89 seats with the other 6 seats won by the WP. PAP scored 70% of the overall popular vote, an increase of 10% from the 2011 general election. WP scored 40% of votes in the 28 seats it contested, a drop of 7%. In the overall popular vote, WP scored 12% of the overall popular vote and the remaining 7 opposition parties scored 18% of the overall votes.

The traditional media (TV, radio and newspapers) in Singapore are tightly regulated by the government. However, since the 2011 general election, in every by-election the Internet seems to always predict big advances for the opposition parties. The 2015 election results were in stark contrast with the prevailing sentiment on social media sites as well as high attendance at the rallies of opposition parties prior to the election. The passing of Lee Kuan Yew, the celebration of the Singapore’s Golden Jubilee and PAP has been more responsive to the people’s wish by making U-turns in some of their un-popular policies since the last election are cited as the reason for PAP’s success in this election. PAP has also introduced some younger candidates in this election in their attempt to win back some votes of the younger citizens.

More importantly, as stated by some political analysts, the opposition should not have been too greedy and tried to contest in all 89 seats. As most Singaporeans do not wish to change the government due to the past success of PAP’s rule, in order to play safe the middle ground mass would give their votes to PAP if there is such a fear in their mind. If the opposition is led by 2 to 3 credible parties and they concentrate their effort to attack the 35 to 40 “weaker" PAP controlled constituencies, the voters are more willing to vote for the opposition as PAP would still retain power.

I think the political scenario to be staged for the next general election (to be held not later than 5 years from now) would depend on the PAP’s performance until the next election, whether successful measures are implemented to mitigate the widening gap between the rich and middle/low income groups (e.g. sharp rise in housing prices like HKG), and how to meet the desire of the younger generation for a more open and liberal society.

In the 2011 general election, PAP won 81 of the 87 seats although it scored only 60% of the overall votes. Under the general election system designed by Lee Kuan Yew, PAP can stay in power by winning the major constituencies even though it may not get more than 50% of the overall votes.”

備註:「祖」兄對《海遠網誌》的支持,仝人謹此衷心致謝。

這篇文章發表 於 星期日, 九月 13th, 2015 8:54 下午 在 邁向現代 Road to Modernity. 你可以回應這篇文章透過 RSS 2.0 feed. 你可以 留下回覆, 或 引用 從你的個人網站.

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